One had to believe that Syria was next; the information had already spread. Iran and Hezbollah had already suffered a blow in Lebanon, but at the same time, in the so-called Astana process, a complex process had emerged in Syria.

It was a process that created a Turkish-Russian-Iranian alliance over Syria. It raised the question of how the process in Syria would work and how the global capital system would carry out this process. Particularly because of Russia’s war in Ukraine. When Biden came to power in the US at the time, he immediately put Trump’s earlier decision to withdraw from Afghanistan into practice and developed the war in Ukraine.

Now, the importance of the Ukrainian front needs to be evaluated multidimensionally. They sabotaged the Russia-China alternative energy route. The shortest and most profitable overland route was, in fact, the energy route connecting China-India to Europe, to Paris, Berlin, and London from the north of the Black Sea. They sabotaged this with the Ukraine war. It was China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project, and it wanted to run it through Russia. This was sabotaged with the Ukraine war. If that had not been the case, the economic influence of China and Russia on Europe would have developed a lot. They were almost becoming dependent. To some extent, Germany and other places had established relations with Russia because of their dependence on natural gas. The US influence on Europe would have weakened; it would have fallen into the background. In terms of its military impact, as Macron put it, NATO was “brain dead,” and they said that they needed a new European army. There were searches between Germany and France in that direction. All this was weakening the US influence in Europe, and they reversed this. They sabotaged the energy route with the Ukraine war and restrained Russia’s relations with China, and they enlarged NATO by adding Sweden and Finland. The US has thus gained, and based on this gain, it carried out the Israeli attacks in the Eastern Mediterranean. This also played a role in Syria. The recent election of Trump has made this even more decisive. Some people say that Biden is trying to do things before he leaves the presidency, before Trump becomes president, but it is not exactly like that. Yes, the US may not be a very deep-rooted state; it is a state of two hundred years, but it is an institutionalized state. Trump won the elections, and Biden is implementing what Trump says; he cannot implement anything else because he is the administration that won.

Trump’s election has had a certain impact on these developments in Syria. For example, it paved the way for negotiations with Russia. Trump was openly saying this in his election propaganda. They negotiated with Russia over Ukraine and Syria. The most critical thing in Syria is Russia’s position. If Russia was in a position to impose a conflict, they could not have attacked Syria like this. They negotiated two things at once. Trump’s election facilitated this bargain, and they agreed. So they agreed on Ukraine, and now they will give it a shape. They also agreed on Syria, and it is not known what Russia will receive. They agreed on Ukraine to a certain extent. They may have also agreed on having a port in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may have imposed this. If not, this shows that Russia has fallen into a very weak situation. Because its goal since its existence has been to reach the Eastern Mediterranean. This was the goal of the Russian Tsar; this was the goal of the Soviet Union, because this is the essence of Russian strategy. After the 2010 war, with the weakening of the Bashar al-Assad regime, it became more attached to itself and opened a space for itself there. It seems that there is a two-way deal. They bargained both in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Ukraine. The agreement on Ukraine has also become an agreement on the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, Russia was included in the energy path. This is the importance of the conflicts in Syria. This is the main meaning of Russia’s behavior, forcing the Assad regime to withdraw, making the Assad regime a bargaining chip. They have not only found a solution to the Syrian question; they have also found a solution to the Russian question on the Eastern Mediterranean route. This means that Russia will also be included in this road project. They had already neutralized the road north of the Black Sea. Now, their contradictions with Russia may decrease more and more. Russia may also be involved in this trade through Syria via the Eastern Mediterranean. Thus, the road project becomes stronger. That aspect is of great significance.

When the system made a deal with Russia, the other front became very strong. Russia was the danger in front of them. After making that deal, they became stronger. With confidence, they gained the power to re-establish an alliance with the Turkish Republic. In fact, it is understood that they included Turkey in such an intervention project in Syria after reaching an agreement with Russia. If they had not agreed with Russia, they could have excluded Turkey, because it was too contradictory, and they would not have been able to get out of it. When they came to an agreement with Russia, the way was cleared for them; just as they used Tayyip Erdogan as an agent provocateur in Gaza, now they used the Turkish Republic as a similar agent provocateur to bring down the Assad regime, the Baath regime. They established relations through the UK; most recently, the NATO Secretary came to Turkey, and they made Tayyip Erdogan pull the string of Hamas. They also had Tayyip Erdogan pull Bashar’s rope. In fact, Turkey was also very influential in the removal of Saddam.

Some people wonder how the Assad regime can fall in twelve days, but of course it is possible with such an alliance. Because the Baath government had no power left, there was Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia. Israel seriously struck Hezbollah and Iran. Russia had changed sides, and so there was nothing left for Bashar al-Assad but to withdraw. He had no chance and power to resist and endure. Maybe he could resist for a day or two more, but he would be crushed. Instead, he found it in his own interest to hand over the administration and flee. This is how the process developed rapidly.

It was said that there would be developments in Syria that would shake the Middle East and the world. Israel had given that atmosphere. Israel was going to hit Hamas, then Hezbollah, Iran, and Damascus, and it was being discussed in which way they would crush them. They turned out to be cunning and gave the role to AKP-MHP. They overthrew them through the Turkish government, which considers itself Muslim. They broke the Turkish-Arab relations and increased their tension. They increased the contradictions between Iran and Turkey. This project led to all this. If they had tried to do the same thing through Israel, they might not have been so successful; there might have been more resistance. If the US had done it itself, there would have been different contradictions. They are doing whatever it takes to develop the contradictions in the Middle East and intensify the clashes. It is imperialism’s policy of divide and rule. It is exactly what the name says, and this is being realized in practice.

Now, if Syria and then Iraq are taken over, Cyprus will be next. The US signed a strategic military agreement with Cyprus last year, and Israel signed one recently. They have been conducting military exercises with the Cyprus administration in the Eastern Mediterranean many times. Most recently, Israel agreed to create a system similar to Israel’s for Cyprus’ air defense. Germany and America did the same thing in Greece. They have made Greece completely ready for this. They created their ports and security systems with F-35s. Now they are preparing Southern Cyprus together. When it is Cyprus’ turn, the issue of Turkey will be on the agenda there. What they want to do directly through Syria, through the Kurds in Syria, may have a partial effect; they may not deepen the contradictions with Turkey through Syria, but they can go after Turkey through Cyprus. There, the system and Turkey will contradict and come into conflict, because Turkey will not be able to keep Northern Cyprus any longer. Northern Cyprus will want to unite with Southern Cyprus. Again, there will be a struggle over the sea area, and they will come into conflict and contradict each other.

The system may not enter into conflict with Turkey over the Kurds. Because it knows that Turkey is very sensitive on this issue. If it enters into conflict from there, nothing will happen in Turkish politics, and it will not be able to influence anyone. It will enter from different directions, but other policies will also come to the agenda from there. For example, it may enter through Cyprus, for example, through the energy route. They will bring different factors to the agenda. Then the Kurdish question will come to the agenda. The Turkish Republic is very well aware of this. This was reflected in Devlet Bahceli’s approach. We don’t know for sure, but it seemed as if Tayyip Erdogan intervened with Devlet Bahceli because Tayyip Erdogan doesn’t want it. Tayyip Erdogan wants only one thing, and that is the continuation of a policy that will keep him in power until his death. Tayyip Erdogan does not need anything else. He has no religion, no nationalism, nothing. He is not a Turk either. That is precisely why he prevented things from getting serious.

This process will take a while, because the system needs time; they need to digest what they have done. One can ask when something like this will happen. Two things can be said about it:

First; they need time, they need to digest, but a permanent system can be established neither in Lebanon, nor in Syria, nor in Iraq. They will take steps towards it, but if the status quo in Turkey and Iran is not resolved, the new Middle East system cannot be formed. The capitalist system cannot establish its own system. It can build the system after it has dealt with them, because both of them will frustrate it. Especially if these two status quoist powers interact with each other, they will frustrate much more. In its current state, they have such an effectiveness.

Second; there is the PKK factor. Just as Turkish nationalism fears the Kurds, the capitalist modernity system fears the PKK because it has the power to take everything away from them. They have such an opposition to Rêber Apo. They are very angry with the paradigm of Rêber Apo.

There was nothing like this in the First World War. The Bolsheviks arrested the government overnight, made a revolution, and kept it going because there were no obstacles. Now it is not like that. The experience of the past hundred years has made the system very sensitive to this issue. Contradictions and conflicts within the system are one thing; contradictions and conflicts between the alternative system and society are another. When the contradiction and conflict with society come up, they reconcile the contradictions and conflicts among themselves. Therefore, it is difficult for them to intervene in Turkey without weakening the PKK; without crushing it or pulling it into their orbit or making it unable to develop an alternative, they are very cautious in this regard.

The current Turkish state seems to have realized this a little bit. They go everywhere and say, “Terrorism is dangerous not only for us but also for you,” and what they call ‘terrorism’ is the thoughts of Rêber Apo. They are discussing this among themselves and thus gaining support. This will continue for a while, but it is not clear how long this situation will last. They want to achieve results with attacks, and if these are frustrated, there may be different developments. This is a struggle; we have to focus on our own strategy, style, and tactics. The more we frustrate their projects, their attacks on this basis, the more we advance. We need to develop a struggle to nullify them. We should not look for a situation that will destroy them or create a complete reconciliation; such expectations are wrong. Neither a destructive approach is right nor an immediate reconciliation approach is right. We must envision struggle; we must find in ourselves the strength, the will, and the persistence to fight. This will be a step-by-step struggle. They will hit us and try to destroy us, but the more we frustrate their projects, the stronger we will become and the weaker they will become.

We search to apply Rêber Apo’s paradigm. This means correctly identifying the reality of struggle, the environment of contradiction and conflict. Europe had dictators that were overthrown, and the Middle East also has dictators. The fall of Saddam Hussein should not be underestimated. Those who were in power in the Middle East for 35 years were overthrown in a short period of time. They were hardline Arab nationalists, nation-state nationalists. They are keeping the softer ones alive, for example, the monarchies. Now they are clashing with this nation-state status quo nationalism, and the pioneer of nation-state nationalism is the Turkish Republic. This process will be difficult for the system, and it will be difficult for them to reconcile among themselves. The conflictual process will continue.